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A Comparison Between 8 Common Cost Forecasting Methods

New access to 2018 paper on project cost estimating added to PMWL

10 June 2021 – Dallas, TX, USA – In case you missed it, new access to an excellent previously published paper related to project cost estimating is available in the PM World Library (PMWL).  The resource is a paper titled “A Comparison Between 8 Common Cost Forecasting Methods” authored by Stephen Paterson that was published in the PM World Journal in January 2018.

According to author’s abstract: Forecasts are one of the most important tools in a Project Controls Practitioners toolkit, the importance of which cannot be stressed enough. Although it may not be an exact science, analyzing the project data, evaluating the trends and getting the message to Project Team and Stakeholders are important steps in creating a successful project. Yes, creating, successful projects just don’t happen by themselves, they are created by teams of competent professionals utilizing the best resources available to them. Nowadays, a high percentage of projects are failing due to several factors, one of which is poor “tracking and analysis. Tracking and analysis cover a large scope in the practitioner’s remit, part of which is forecasting. This forecasting needs to be accurate, utilizing as much of the historic and current data as possible to provide the best possible information to allow informed decisions to be made.

The NDIA’s “Guide to Managing Programs and Projects Using Predictive Measures” along with the Guild of Project Controls “Compendium and Reference” (CaR) are two sources of information available to practitioners that should be considered when performing such analysis. This paper explores the information contained within these sources and applies their formulas against a live project to determine which methodology provides the best accuracy, before providing some guidelines for fellow practitioners to consider when developing similar forecasts.

To read this paper, visit the Applications and Hot Topics section of the library at, scroll down and click on “Cost Estimating”. Scroll down to find the resource. Registration is required to access; to see who has free access, visit